Predict the Election Results and Win $30 to Starbucks
This week Paul Frank makes his guesses and invites you to do the same.
I believe in polls.
If done properly, I think pre-election polls have a great track record of predicting results.
This year, however, the poll results have been all over the place. State Sen. Bill Brady's lead over Gov. Pat Quinn's, for example, has varied from 13 points to non-existent in the last four weeks. The publicly-released polls don't paint a picture that TV pundits can easily describe to us.
Early voting periods and voting by mail are also going to affect election results and will cause them to vary from final poll numbers because people who have already voted won't see late TV ads.
In 1994 I worked on my first political campaigns for Democratic candidates who should have won but didn't. This year is going to feel a lot like that for Illinois Democrats, with a few minor exceptions. The governor's race is closer than it was 16 years ago, but the Republican momentum is significant enough to have Democrats doubting.
I think I know how this one is going to break out. Do you?
Try to beat me and you'll win $30 to Starbucks.
All you have to do to is post your election predictions in the comments section below before 6 a.m. on Nov. 2. Please only submit one round of guesses.
We'll announce the winner Wednesday, assuming all the races have been called by then.
Indicate a winner for each of the following races in the comments below. As a bonus, predict the final vote percentage for Attorney General Lisa Madigan.
You get one point for each race you predict correctly; the Lisa Madigan statewide vote percentage will be the tie-breaker in case of a tie.
US Senate: Mark Kirk / Alexi Giannoulias
Governor: Bill Brady / Pat Quinn
U.S. House: Robert Dold / Dan Seals
Ill. House: Lauren Turelli / Karen May
Lake County Board: Carl Marcyan / Anne Bassi
Lake County Circuit Judge: Wallace Dunn / Mark Levitt
Bonus question/Tiebreaker: What will Lisa Madigan's vote total percentage be?
My predictions: Kirk, Brady, Seals, May, Bassi and Levitt. Lisa Madigan will get 67.8% of the vote (she got 72.4% against another unknowni n 2006).
Pick the winner, beat me and win $30 to Starbucks from Highland Park Patch. Good luck!
bob Frank
6:15 pm on Thursday, October 28, 2010
Levitt, Bassi, May, Seals, Quinn, Kirk (tho I really really hope not).
Madigan: 68.68%
Jacob Nelson
7:17 pm on Thursday, October 28, 2010
Alright, the secret's out -- the prize is $30 to Starbucks!
Good luck everyone!
paul
8:14 am on Friday, October 29, 2010
talk about a prize, check out NEW WEBSITE, HYPERVOCAL.COM from LEE BRENNER HP
Paul Frank
9:37 am on Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Congrats to Bob who beat me by correctly predicting that Gov. Quinn would win. Even though the votes aren't all counted, it's pretty clear to me that he won.
Jacob Nelson
12:20 pm on Wednesday, November 3, 2010
I dunno, Paul, I think this contest is a little too close to call.
Paul Frank
2:42 pm on Wednesday, November 3, 2010
You are of course the final judge here Jacob, but with the outstanding votes coming almost entirely from Cook County I don't see any way possible that Brady can make up for a 12,000 vote deficit (as of 2:30 p.m. Wednesday). I think Brady needs to concede already. Percentage wise, sure its close. But in reality, 12,000 votes is a huge number. He'd have to win 90% of the outstanding ballots to beat Quinn at this point.
The only race that remains too close to call, IMHO, is the 8th CD Bean vs. Walsh
Jacob Nelson
2:45 pm on Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Ha, I was kidding! Just trying to poke a little fun at the turnout for this thing.
Congrats, Bob. Email me at jacob@patch.com so I can get you your prize. Hope you like coffee!