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Health & Fitness

World Events in the 2012 Election

A look at which world tensions are likely to flare up before November, and how they'll impact the election.

In January of this year I published a blog reminiscing upon the major world events of 2011, those which had dominated our media and shaped political discourse. However, now the world has seemed to underwhelm us in impacting our political landscape just as we approach a new election, as it looks like the overseas event that will get the most coverage this year will be the London Olympic games.  This is because our news agencies report only changes in a situation, and our biggest international crises today are such that nobody wants to make a move in any direction. The three most important international tensions capable of impacting the American political future are economic instability in the Eurozone, the revolt in Syria, and Iran-Israel relations.

            Firstly, the debt of Eurozone nations will continue to harm the American economy. Nations such as Greece can either continue to accept bailout packages and austerity measures, declare bankruptcy, or leave the Euro to pay their debts with new currencies. The current austerity measures are hurting the economies of the countries that take them up, especially Greece as it has the most direct austerity, and are hurting the budgets of the supplying countries such as Germany. The declaration of bankruptcy would undermine economic stability, deal massive blows to many European banks, and create massive riffs within the European Union – arguably the worst result for the US economy, as all three of these effects carry over very directly. The most unlikely scenario is a country leaving the Euro – however, discussion of it among economists and government officials has become more frequent and serious as the work of rebuilding countries on austerity seems further and further from being accomplished.  If it were to occur each nation would face a massive economic hit similar to when Argentina delinked its Peso from the dollar in 2002 – the Peso became extremely weak and unemployment skyrocketed. Of course Argentina recovered quickly, but the immediate shock would ripple into the U.S. and hurt our economy with the recovery taking place long after the election. It goes without saying that any economic loss is a win for Romney, as many voters will treat the election as a referendum on America’s economic rises and falls during the last four years.  

            The battle between rebels in Syria and the government of Bashir Al-Assad also cannot stay in its current form forever. It goes without saying that either the rebellion will be defeated or it will not be. I believe it will not be, as the Assad regime has a central power structure the rebels have been removing with efficiency while the Assad regime has been mostly killing civilians. The lowest possible diplomatic impact will occur if the regime is simply overthrown without aid like in Egypt or Libya – the difference being that Al-Assad has become so reviled for his actions that his overthrow cannot be treated as a bad thing in the slightest. With nobody in America able to take credit for it either, American politics won’t be shaken much. Any further complications than that – for example an American involvement or increased resistance to UN involvement by Russia and China – will work in Obama’s favor. Obama has statesman credentials, and can use the opportunity to underline that being President is more than just managing the economy, and that government does more than tax and spend on economic projects – it accomplishes diplomatic operations in a way no private company is authorized to do or capable of doing.

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            The same rule - if it’s not the economy, it helps Obama - applies for Iran and Israel, assuming Obama takes a forceful position. While Iran’s nuclear program has dropped from prominence it is continuing, and so is the US stance against it. Israel, always a politically savvy nation that takes any advantage it can seek, may ramp up calls for the US to act against Iran more openly and directly as the election season comes closer – when being “weak on Iran” or “a bad ally to Israel” would become fatal for the President’s reelection chances. Any development in Iran’s anti-American rhetoric or its research will mandate American opposition if Obama is to retain any foreign policy strength. Indeed, the more direct action against Iran the more Obama will be able to project an image of strength, and the less the news will focus on the economy. The challenge will be in weighing out the consequences of an equal or greater response every time Iran turns up the heat toward Israel or the United States.

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